Forecasting demand for qualified labour in the South African hotel industry

Abstract

As South Africa’s popularity as a tourist destination increases, the need for skilled human capital also increases. The study of skills development and human capital in all sectors of the economy has long been topical as a means to support organisational progression that can eventually lead to economic growth. Estimates suggest that tourism and hospitality employ at least 10% of the global workforce and consequently prove to be a sector that cannot be readily ignored. However, because of the complex and consumption-based nature of the tourism sector, and the general scarcity of sector-related information, data on both demand and supply of skills are few and of a qualitative rather than a quantitative nature. This research addresses this gap and aims to forecast the demand for qualified labour in the South African hotel industry. The research methodology is twofold; firstly, hotel turnover is forecasted using univariate forecasting methods and data available from Statistics South Africa; secondly, employment elasticities were determined. Linking elasticity with turnover forecasts presents an estimate of the future demand for qualified labour in the hotel industry. In addition, the typical qualifications required are based on information obtained from CATHSSETA and a survey.