How did advanced emerging stock markets respond to COVID-19 and the Ukraine invasion?

Abstract

Orientation: The global economy and stock markets have been severely affected by two recent events, namely, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Research purpose: This study aims to establish whether these two events had the same impact on the stock markets of the group of 11 advanced emerging markets and whether individual countries were affected to the same extent by these two events.

Motivation for the study: During periods of instability and uncertainty, emerging markets are usually more vulnerable compared to developed markets. Previous studies have confirmed the presence of herd behaviour relating to emerging markets.

Research approach/design and method: This empirical study used an event study approach to compare the stock market performance for the 30 days before the events with the 30 days after the events. The performance of the countries is further analysed and ranked to determine whether countries were affected similarly by the two events.

Main findings: The COVID-19 pandemic had a much more severe initial impact on the stock markets of the advanced emerging markets compared to the invasion of Ukraine. Regional and country-specific factors were more relevant for the Ukraine invasion, with Eastern European countries more severely affected. There is no indication of herd behaviour by investors.

Practical/managerial implications: Investors seemingly did consider country-specific factors and did not treat stock markets in this group in the same way. There is therefore scope for emerging market countries to benefit from sound fundamentals.

Contribution/value-add: The specific focus on emerging markets as a homogeneous group is a novel contribution.